PRE2019 1 Group1

Autonomous systems for space traffic management

Group Members

Name	Study	Student ID
Stijn Eeltink	Mechanical Engineering	1004290
Laura Kulter	Psychology&Technology	0851512
Annelies Severens	Biomedical Engineering	1232787

Planning

Each week will consist of two meetings. Prior to each meeting the team will work individually on the tasks they have been assigned for that meeting. During the meetings the results of these tasks will be discussed and finalized. L = Laura, S = Stijn, A = Annelies.

Week	Monday (morning)	Wednesday (afternoon)
1	ALL : choose topic	ALL : literary research problem definition make the planning define structure of the report
2	L : introduction/problem statement L : wiki page A : state of the art A : mail tutor for presentation date S : users/stakeholders	ALL : objectives/deliverables
3	political aspects economical aspects technical aspects (state of the art)	political aspects economical aspects technical aspects
4	political aspects economical aspects technical aspects (effects of the solution) Intermediate evaluation (peer review)	political aspects economical aspects technical aspects (effects of the solution)
5	concept discussion conclusion first draft	Hand in first version for feedback
6	discuss feedback	implement feedback
7	finalize report and wiki	Final evaluation (peer review) finalize report and wiki
8	Presentation Deadline : report and wiki

Introduction

On Monday morning September 2nd the European Space Agency had to fire the thrusters of its Aeolus satellite to avoid a collision with Starlink44. (source: http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Safety/ESA_spacecraft_dodges_large_constellation)

While space debris has been a big threat to active satellites for a long time (previous 0LAUK0 groups have done extensive research on that topic before and presented several good solutions), there is now another upcoming threat that might become an even bigger threat to active satellites in the near future. Because of ongoing projects that plan to launch several (tens of) thousands of satellites into the space around earth in the coming years the risk of these satellites colliding with each other increases exponentially. Right now these collisions are avoided by ad hoc and human interference, this is however a solution that isn’t feasible in the future where instead of a 1 on 1 collision we will start running into constellations(satellite fleets) running into collision courses with other constellations, which would require manoeuvring thousands of satellites. In this project we will examine the current state of the art, stake holders and explore how autonomous space traffic management AI’s might help in solving this upcoming threat and try to give a recommendation which system looks the most promising for the future.

Problem Statement

As stated on the introduction this project will focus on the need for an autonomous space traffic management system (henceforth called ASTM). The main reason for the need of such a system is the ever increasing presence of active satellites in low earth orbit, which will make it no longer feasible in the near future to avoid collisions by depending on human input. The goal of a good working ASTM system is to solve the following problems:

-Autonomous space flight and collision avoidance of all participating members. The group of members can run into the thousands, meaning that the system should be able to take into account large 3D flight models;

-Because there can be many different participating members, from small private owners to large constellations owned by governments or companies, the system will need to be able to easily adept to different messaging structures and types of satellites. Rather than trying to enforce a single new program structure the system will have to be able to work with as many existing and future systems as possible;

-The system is meant to be an autonomous third party assistant, not an owner. For instance a company could develop and license this system to satellite owners who want access to easy STM. This would mean that the system needs to ensure that participating members are always able to take back control of their spacecraft should a license end or a conflict between parties arise;

-The system should be impartial. Meaning it should never sacrifice a satellite in favour of another satellite (government vs private owner). However the system should also be able to react to unavoidable situations(though these will be very unlikely to happen), in which case it might inquire human parties to negotiate which satellite(s) will be sacrificed;

Because of the international space treaties (SOURCE OF LAW NEEDED) there are currently no rules in STM and no single entity is able to enforce whatever rules it creates. This means that ASTM systems will need to take several additional problems into account:

-An ASTM system will need to not just take participating members into account, but should also be able to react to non-participating members which it is has no control over;

-The system should be able to work with incomplete or not totally accurate information, this is especially likely with military satellites who might disclose false or incomplete information regarding the existence and manoeuvres of strategic satellites;

(Bonus) A nice additional feature would be if the ASTM system incorporates self-learning algorithms. Especially to predict future flight paths or future possible collisions and avoid them early on to perhaps decrease the risk of situations where the loss of satellites is unavoidable and to maybe even lower the needed amount of manoeuvres since the amount of times a satellite can manoeuvre is a very limited resource. (REQUIRES SOURCE)

State of the art

At the moment, there are no international or even national Space Traffic Management systems. However, because of the increasing amount of non-governmental organizations executing space activities, rules are needed to ensure safety in air space. Generally speaking, Space Traffic Management can be defined by the safety insurance of: 1. Safe access to outer space, 2. The conduction of operations in outer space, and 3. The return of space objects from outer space free from interference of any form.^[1]

Currently, the Outer Space Treaty forms a basis of international space law.^[2] The treaty was opened in 1967, when the United States, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union signed the treaty. More countries followed in the coming years. As of 2019, 109 countries are parties of the treaty. This treaty focuses on the limitation of the use of celestial bodies and restricts nations from claiming sovereignty of outer space. It does not include any legal regulation of a Space Traffic Management. At the time that the treaty was set up, the STM concept was not considered a priority. In 2015, the UNCOPUOS committee had received approval to add STM as an agenda item in 2016.^[3]

The Cosmic Study from IAA created a definition for STM. It was the first step, but too premature to implement any regulations limiting freedom.^[4]

“The set of technical and regulatory provisions for promoting safe access into outer space, operations in outer space and return from outer space to Earth free from physical or radio-frequency interference” – Cosmic Study (IAA)

The 2016 “Orbital Traffic Management Study – Final Report” does not contain a definition for space traffic management. Instead, it provides a definition for Space Traffic Safety. Management would imply centralized command and control, which was seen as problematic.^[5]

“Freedom from those conditions in orbital space that may lead to incidents resulting in harm (death or injury to astronauts and spaceflight participants, damage to public welfare ,damage or loss of spacecraft, interference to spacecraft). Incidents of specific concern are collisions or orbital breakups.” – NASA

The 2017 German Aerospace Center (DLB) White paper on the “Implementation of a European Space Traffic Management System” defines STM as:^[6]

“Execution of all necessary managing and Monitoring and Control Operations (including routine and contingency scenarios) to ensure safe ballistic travel of manned and unmanned Suborbital Space Vehicles (SSVs) and spaceplanes through Near-Earth space and airspace under consideration of the existing European Air Traffic Management System and Infrastructure.”

According to [1] a national system will be most probably implemented before an international regime. This also has to do with data sharing between governmental and non-governmental organizations. Over the years, there have been different definitions and approaches to STM from the United States, European Space Agency (ESA) and the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA). However, they have some similar key operations, one of which is collision avoidance. This focuses on point 2. of Space Traffic Management: the conduction of operations in outer space. At the moment, ground operators make decisions, which might not always be optimal. The use of machine learning, artificial intelligence, is being explored to support ground operators when planning and implementing collision avoidance manoeuvres.^[7] This is one application that artificial intelligence can be used for. In ^[8] an initial architecture for a Space Traffic Management system is proposed, based on open Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). The use of machine learning in complete STM systems is being explored at the moment, a great step towards complete autonomous STMs.